ZB
ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS, INC. (ZBH)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 net sales were $2.001B (+9.7% YoY reported; +5.0% organic CC) and adjusted EPS was $1.90 (+9.2% YoY); GAAP EPS was $1.16 .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, ZBH delivered a modest EPS beat ($1.90 vs $1.86*) and a slight revenue miss ($2.001B vs $2.010B*); U.S. organic growth accelerated to 5.6%, offset by late-quarter weakness in Latin America, Emerging Europe and restorative therapies .
- FY25 guidance: maintained adjusted EPS ($8.10-$8.30) and reported revenue growth (6.7%-7.7%); narrowed CC (6.2%-6.7%) and organic CC (3.5%-4.0%); FX tailwind now 50–100 bps; Paragon 28 contribution ~270 bps .
- Strategic catalysts: completion of Monogram acquisition (semi/fully autonomous robotics), Japan PMDA approval for iodine-treated hip system, and new foot & ankle launches (Paragon 28) underpin medium-term growth narrative .
Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- U.S. organic performance accelerated to 5.6% in Q3, the best U.S. quarter in over two years, driven by “Magnificent Seven” product adoption (Persona cementless total knee, Oxford cementless partial knee) .
- Robotics momentum: strongest ROSA capital sales in over a year; U.S. Technology & Data/Bone Cement/Surgical up 20.3% with increased robotic utilization and >50% of knee implants performed robotically in ROSA accounts .
- Strategic pipeline: Japan PMDA approval for iodine-treated hip system (first-to-world implant technology) and completion of Monogram acquisition to offer semi- and fully autonomous robotics; management highlighted strong surgeon feedback and path to commercialization .
What Went Wrong
- Late-quarter revenue headwinds (~120 bps): distributor order cancellations in Emerging European markets, restorative therapies shortfalls (U.S. HA injections), and Latin America distributor challenges (~15% miss) .
- International slowdown: Q3 international organic CC growth 4.2% lagged U.S., with emerging market weakness and lower growth in China; non-core restorative therapies declined low-teens .
- Sequential softness vs Q2: revenue fell to $2.001B from $2.077B and adjusted EPS to $1.90 from $2.07, reflecting mix/international headwinds and higher interest expense tied to Paragon 28 .
Financial Results
Revenue, EPS and Margins (Q1 → Q3 2025)
Q3 2025 vs Estimates (S&P Global)
Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Geography Net Sales (Q1 → Q3 2025)
Product Category Net Sales (Q1 → Q3 2025)
Cash Flow and Net Debt KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Our third quarter performance was anchored by 5.6% organic revenue growth in our critical U.S. business, driven by accelerated adoption of our key new products referred to as the ‘Magnificent Seven’.”
- CEO on robotics: “We now look forward to… launch the world's first semi-autonomous robot… in early 2027, swiftly followed by the fully autonomous platform at the end of 2027 or early 2028.”
- CFO: “Adjusted gross margin was 72.6%… Adjusted operating margin was 26.5%… partially offset by increased commercial investments and the addition of Paragon 28.”
- CEO on late-quarter miss drivers: “Three things happened… last-minute cancellation of distributor orders in emerging markets of Europe… restorative therapies… and in Latin America… north of 15%… around $24 to $25 million… ~120 basis points.”
- CFO on outlook: “We are maintaining our 2025 reported revenue growth guidance of 6.7% to 7.7%… adjusted EPS… $8.10 to $8.30… FX to contribute 50 to 100 basis points of growth in 2025… Paragon 28 to contribute around 270 basis points.”
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance philosophy and surprise drivers: management acknowledged prior “scratch 6%” comment and adopted a more measured tone; detailed ~120 bps headwind from EM distributor cancellations, U.S. HA injections (restorative therapies) and LATAM distribution issues .
- Capital allocation and leverage: >$1B FCF expected; adjusted EBITDA ~$1.6–$1.7B; net debt leverage “very low three” and optionality for buybacks; continued disciplined M&A in faster-growth segments .
- Robotics roadmap: strong confidence in semi/fully autonomous regulatory path; semi-autonomous commercialization with ZB implants targeted for early 2027; fully autonomous late 2027/early 2028 .
- Paragon 28 integration: organic upper-single-digit growth; no material turnover in sales channel; “rinse and repeat” platform approach for future deals .
- Restorative therapies clarity: primarily U.S. HA injections; budgeting, commercial focus, and CMS pricing pressures were issues; expect more measured expectations going forward .
Estimates Context
- EPS beat: Actual $1.90 vs consensus $1.85975* (+$0.04), driven by higher revenue, improved gross margin and lower share count, partially offset by higher interest expense tied to Paragon 28 .
- Revenue miss: Actual $2.001B vs consensus $2.010B*, reflecting late-quarter EM and restorative therapies headwinds despite strong U.S. growth and ROSA placements .
Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- U.S. acceleration is real: 5.6% organic growth, stronger knees/hips adoption and ROSA momentum underpin near-term support; watch for sustained improvements into Q4 and FY26 .
- International/emerging markets are near-term risk: distributor dynamics and EM volatility pressured Q3; management removed these from near-term guidance, signaling prudence .
- Guidance quality improved: EPS maintained, revenue ranges narrowed, FX tailwind raised; free cash flow robust ($1.0–$1.2B) provides buyback/M&A optionality .
- Medium-term catalysts: Monogram autonomy roadmap and Japan iodine hip launch should enhance competitive positioning and pricing/mix, supporting margins and growth in 2026–2028 .
- Non-GAAP profile strong: adjusted gross margin 72.6% and operating margin 26.5%; intangible amortization, restructuring, and EU MDR costs are material exclusions—track conversion to cash via FCF .
- Segment mix: S.E.T. remains a growth engine augmented by Paragon 28; watch restorative therapies (U.S. HA) for stabilization under revised expectations .
- Trading implications: Modest EPS beat vs slight revenue miss with cautious tone could cap near-term multiple expansion; catalysts (robotics, iodine hip) and U.S. strength vs EM risk argue for selective accumulation on weakness .